Published: November 29, 2023

Category: Market News

Strong supplies are expected to keep bearish pressure on organic commodity prices as the market moves into the 2023/24 marketing year, according to Mercaris November 2023 Commodity Market Outlook.

U.S. organic soybean markets are expected to see record supplies over the start of 2023/24 as record carryover stock combine with a near record harvest.

“The 2023/24 marketing year is expected to see supplies reach 17.4 million bushels over harvest, up 23%,” says Mercaris Vice President of Economics Ryan Koory. “This substantial supply position is expected to keep prices pressured lower, and likely slow the pace of imports looking forward.”

Similarly, U.S. organic corn is expected to see harvested area reach a record level, pushing production much higher year-over-year. Furthermore, 2023/24 saw organic corn carryover build as imports remained relatively strong.

“Mercaris estimates the 2023/24 marketing year will see organic corn supplies reach of 57.2 million bushels over the first three months, 11% more than the start of 2022/23,” said Koory.

While the supply outlook suggests significant bullish price risks, it is expected that some of this supply will be consumed by growth in the organic grain feed market.

“Following a recovery in organic poultry production, organic corn and wheat feed use is expected to expand by 3% and 4%, respectively,” said Koory. “Likewise, organic soybean meal demand is expected to reach a record 789 million ST over 2023/24, up 3% year-over-year.”

Source: Mercaris

Organic & Non-GMO Insights December 2023