Specialty Tree Crop Markets in 2026

U.S. specialty tree crop markets are entering the 2026 growing season with steadier supply conditions but continued pressure on profitability, according to recent USDA data and industry commodity reports.

Almond markets, after multiple years of oversupply, are showing signs of inventory correction as export shipments improve, particularly to Asia and the Middle East. Pistachios remain comparatively strong, supported by steady global demand and more limited acreage expansion. However, both crops remain sensitive to water costs and export market volatility.

In citrus, Florida production continues to struggle with citrus greening, constraining domestic orange supply and supporting elevated juice prices. California growers face rising labor and compliance costs, while imports from Mexico and Southern Hemisphere suppliers are influencing price levels, particularly in lemons and mandarins.

Apple production remains stable, aided by expanded storage capacity that smooths seasonal supply. Organic apples continue to command a premium, though retail price differentials have narrowed compared to pandemic-era highs.

Organic berries remain a growth category at retail, but expanding imports from Peru and Mexico are intensifying pricing competition.

Across commodities, elevated labor, water, freight, and input costs remain the dominant economic challenge. Industry forecasts suggest 2026 will be characterized by margin management rather than rapid expansion, as growers prioritize cost control and export positioning in a more balanced but competitive marketplace.

Sources: USDA Economic Research Service (Fruit and Tree Nuts Sector Overview; Specialty Crop Data Products); USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Annual Summary, 2025); National Nut Grower, “2026 State of the Tree Nut Industry Report”; American Farm Bureau Federation, Market Intel (Specialty Crop Cost Pressures); USDA ERS Trade and Prices Data Portal.

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